It appears that despite the poor optics and decisions made after the transition, The Trump Administration is on the verge of achieving a Foreign Policy success in Africa.
When the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a deal that laid the foundation for Peace back in April there was copious amounts of skepticism. These countries have fought two wars since 1994 directly while both are currently accused of fighting by proxy in the Eastern part of the country which is one of the most underreported conflicts ongoing in the world.
There is now a framework. On June 18th it was announced that both parties had initialed a Peace Accord. That document will be formally signed on June 27th according to media reports. The main point of the deal appears to be that Rwanda will withdraw an estimated 5,000 troops believed to be supporting the M23 insurgency movement. There is also some chatter that suggests that the DRC is amenable to having some of their minerals exported through Rwanda. In return both countries are to expect a substantial increase in US investments provided that the deal is honored.
There is a flaw that critics have been pointing out. M23 has been absent from the negotiations regarding this deal and is not a signatory to it either. During the talks the group has maintained its offensive in the Eastern Part of the DRC and has not made their intentions known whether or not they will respect the terms. Their actions are an effort to disparage any links between the group and Kigali. However if they abide by the terms will this been seen as evidence of ties between these two parties?
It has been the policy of the current leadership in Kinshasa to get the Rwandan presence out of their country by any means necessary. However there are signals that governance in Kinshasa is still an issue. Earlier this month Jean-PIerre Bemba the current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport and Communication Channels for the DRC gave an interview where he accused Catholic Bishops of being part of a plot to remove current President Felix Tshisekedi.
The claims by Minister Bemba who was a Warlord convicted at the International Criminal Court before his conviction was overturned on appeal have been criticized by the Church would also accuse the Minister of Hostility towards the Catholic Bishops since the 2023 Elections.
Over the last few election cycles the Catholic Church has played the part of mediators, educators and election observers. They have run afoul of both Joseph Kabila and Felix Tshisekedi. Monitoring the status of the Church will be paramount in judging the stablity of the DRC.
