Reversal of Fortune


At times events that occur in the world seem cyclical. Often it seems that we are repeating events. Or as Mark Twain is reported to have said “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Such as the case with Central Asia. We know the history of the region over the last forty years. Invasion and Occupation by the Soviet Union. A brief period of civilan governance before it was ousted by the Taliban. Then came the Americans who stayed for two decades and then turned the reins of power over to the Afghans. Then after a chaotic withdrawal by the US the Taliban returned.

The images of the chaos taking place during the last days of the evacuation were difficult to watch. There was even a terrorist attack that resulted in the deaths of a dozen members of the US Military which cast the Biden Administration in a negative light which could still impact the Mid-terms

However the narrative has changed. It was at one point “How can the United States recover is image in this region” to the current narrative being “Central Asia is also being impacted by the War in Ukraine.”

There are ample pieces to promote this hypothesis. Recently the United States Institute of Peace had an event that highlighted the relations between Tajikistan and the United States for more than three decades.

Recently a US delegation visited Kyrrghistan. This nation has been considered to be a close ally of Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Now it is opening up more to the United States.

Uzbekistan has also taken steps to further improve relations with the United States. This relationship has been growing stronger over the last couple of years due to engagement on Religious Freedom issues.

The renewal of operations by Russia in the Ukraine and the subsequent results have not gone as well as the Russians have hoped. It has allowed for Washington to renew coversations with partners it likely hasn’t had discussions with since the chaotic days of the withdrawal.

The future of US Diplomacy is potentially robust now thanks to the Russians.


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Specialist in US Policy (Security, Assymetrical Operations and Business Development) towards Africa and Arab World (Washington DC – USA)

1 Comment

  1. For the moment, Iran is taking the lead in the region thanks to the Chinese-Russian-Iranian division of work in the Heatland and western Asia. US narrative and virtual reality is less and less impressive for the Global South and Russian public opinion. …Even in the West the tide is slowluy turning.

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