It should come as no surprise that both government forces and insurgent forces, including militant groups, have fallen in love with using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or as they are more commonly known for drones.
Within the last decade, the introduction of these platforms was instrumental in changing the initiative in two conflict zones. Their use by the Libyan Government in Tripoli in repelling an assault by General Khalifa Haftar on the capital caught many by surprise. Then in 2022 the Government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed successfully used these platforms to force the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) into a Peace Accord that appears to have collapsed in recent weeks.
It should be noted as well that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been launching UAV missions from Ethiopia against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). There has been at least one reprisal raid against Ethiopia as well. Both the RSF and the SAF continue to use UAVs to launch strikes against the bases of the other side as fighting continues to rage throughout Sudan.
Should we be surprised to learn that their use appears to be expanding into other conflicts that are active in Africa?
Over the last couple of weeks, several interesting events can be seen as cases of foreshadowing expansion in several conflicts.
The first nugget comes from Nigeria. During the week of October 15th, it was announced that the European Union signed a deal with Nigeria to provide 23 million USD in Military Equipment. The current Defense Minister of Nigeria Former General Christopher Musa announced that the Nigerian Military is expecting to receive 10 attack helicopters an unspecified number of drones and military equipment. This deal was announced after Nigeria received a shipment of arms from the United States last month.
It appears that the Nigerian Air Force is finding that conventional air strikes against militant forces are not yielding the necessary results that are needed to arrest the insurgencies. The use of these platforms could improve the response time of the military to insurgent attacks. This has been a major criticism levied against the military by survivors of these attacks in various states. Another way to look at this can be that Nigeria is in a phase where they need to develop a cohesive strategy to respond to these incidents and are trying to ascertain which platform will yield the best results.
The second story specifically mentions the ambush of the members of Vectrus Global the firm owned by Erik Prince and is currently active in the Democratic Republic of Congo. One of the most intriguing stories which has not been independently verified but has been spread over the internet rumor mill is that the team of Prince fighters were tracked by a UAV before the deadly ambush took place.
It should not be that much of a surprise to learn that both the Congolese Government and the M23 insurgent group, and their Rwandan Allies have used UAVs against each other during the conflict that has raged for years in the eastern provinces of the DRC. Even though there is a peace deal on record between Kinshasa and Kigali, this incident suggests that although there is a deal in place, it has done little to curtail the fighting on the ground. Having the world focus on the deadly Ebola outbreak over these events is concerning but understandable.
These conflicts are just the tip of the iceberg when it pertains to the potential use of UAV platforms in African Conflict Zones. The vast areas of the Sahel are another area where the use of these platforms is to be expected if not in use currently.
Countries such as Turkey, Iran, and China have been able to sell these platforms to their willing partners in Africa. How long will it take for countries that have been able to provide anti-UAV capabilities such as Ukraine, Israel and even the United States to begin to provide these abilities?
Clearly, this is an issue that will need to be monitored as warfare evolves.
