We are now more than thirty days into the conflict between Hamas and Israel. There are some troubling signs that have emerged since October 7th.
The number of casualties is stunning. 1400 Israelis were killed with others being injured and even taken back into Gaza by the Militants. Sadly only a few have been released by Hamas who appear to be using them to gain concessions from Israel. Another concern has been in the efforts to invoke a Ceasefire that have failed due to the inclusion of text calling upon Hamas to release the hostages.
Hamas acheived a masterful success with their initial attack on Oct 7th. It appears that the IDF was focused on threats coming from other areas (West Bank & Lebanon) so they may have overlooked Hamas.
However it appears that Hamas did not expect such a vitriol fueled response from the Israelis. The IDF Ground Incursion into Gaza has been quick and brutal despite efforts to limit civilian casualties.
The issue of a ceasefire is interesting. Various entites such as the UN Security Council and the Arab League have called for a ceasefire. We have seen protests in major world cities as well that have demanded a ceasefire. There is a caveat. Much like in the in the Sudan Conflict, Every one has talked about a ceasefire with the exception of the parties in conflict.
Hamas has actually been succeeding in the propaganda conflict. We have seen loud pro-Palestinian protests in various western cities. However videos showing posters of those missing being torn down in the West will damage the Hamas cause.
One of the interesting caveats will be how Israel defines success. No matter what happens with this or the court case against the Prime Minister in his legal case (which has been removed from the News Cycle) Prime Minister Netanyahu will most likely face a no-confidence vote before the end of 2024.
WE are nowhere near the time when a Ceasefire will be implemented. Neither party is interested in direct talks at this time. Until either party is willing to discuss one it will not happen.
The events on October 7th are also presenting a challenge in the US. Congresswoman Rashid Tiab a Palenstinian Congresswoman from Michigan was censured over her remarks on the conflict during an acrimonious debate in the House of Representatives.
Members of the US Diplomatic Corps in the Middle East, Staffers at the State Department and according to some reports Congressional Staffers are upset over the Biden Administration’s Strategy of supporting Israel. This will be an issue that will appear again after the conflict is resolved.
Indeed the Hamas raid on October 7 has indeed opened Pandora’s Box. What will be unleased before it’s closed is yet to be seen.
