While an another attempt at a Ceasefire in Gaza takes place another round of talks regarding Sudan take place
While the focus of the world will be in Cairo where another attempt and perhaps the final attempt (at least during the Biden Administration) to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas , another series of talks will begin to resolve another conflict that doesn’t present an endgame either.
On August 14 the United States along with Saudi Arabia will convene a new session of talks with the stated goal of ending the conflict in Sudan. This conflict is a unique conflict where the main protraginists General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on side and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemedi who is the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) .
The RSF was formed by former Sudanese President Omar Bashir is comprised of fighters from the Janjaweed Militia Groups. These forces gained noteriety during the late 1990s through the early 2010s for their actions in support of then President Bashir during the conflict in Darfur. That conflict placed Sudan under some international scrutiny that it did not desire. These units were considered to be loyal to President Bashir until his outer in a coup back in 2021.
How did Sudan end up in this situation? Currently the country is suffering as these two generals basically are fighting a turf war. General Burhan does not want to rule the country and has stated that he would be willing to allow a civilian administration to resume authority in the country. Hemedi currently is the Vice President of the ruling Military Junta in Khartoum and is considered by some to be the most powerful man in Sudan at this time.
There have been copious stories and reports filed by both the media and NGOs regarding the conflict. The United Arab Emirates has been criticized for supporting the RSF while it appears that Russia has been negotiating with General Burhan regarding both the construction of a new naval facility to supplant Port Sudan and in recent weeks has delivered ammunition to the SAF which has sorely needed it as it attempts to blunt the offensive that has been carried out by the RSF.
One thing that is for certain is that we can assume that the UAE and Russia are not the only players active in this conflict. It appears that some Ethiopian Tigrayan Militias have crossed the border into Ethiopia. These Militia Groups appear to have not decided which side to support and have been pursued by the Ethiopian Army. On July 10th Ethiopian Prime Minister Abey Ahmed met with General Burhan to discuss and end to the conflict.
What is the one thing that both generals seek but currently lack? There is a simple straightforward answer to that question. That answer appears to be legitimacy. The current consensus is that the general who loses this conflict will most likely end up in The Hague facing Crimes Against Humanity and other charges. So why would either General attend these talks?
General Burhan made an interesting request. He stated that he would attend the talks in person if one of his demands were met. That demand was a one-on-one meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. There has not been any annoucements made regarding whether or not the Secretary would attend these sessions in Jeddah. There have been no reports regarding whether or not Hemeti will attend these sessions as well.
However there is one concerning aspect to these talks. There does not seem to be a sense of urgency or a deadline as is currently seen in the Gaza talks. Could the focus on Gaza take some of the pressure off these talks in Saudi Arabia? The answer is that it could however is the question then becomes will that focus accomplish that then the answer becomes even murkier.
Success in either one of these talks could result in additional wind in the sails pushing current Vice President Kamala Harris in her campaign for the Presidency. However noone has asked what a failure in either of the Gaza (which garners most of the media scrutiny) or Sudan talks could look like for the Harris Campaign. We don’t know how the Trump Campaign could exploit a failure in one or both of these talks however asking the American Population if they want more of this should be a legitmate question to ask at the appropiate time
