For most of the year we have been told that a deal regarding Iran and the JCPOA was imminent. It was in the final stages we were told.
This is where the first red flag appears. It was not the Biden Adminsration that was informing the world of this “breakthrough” it would be the Russian Negotiator that was releasing these updates. There is a reason why this is taking place.
Moscow realizes that the Biden Administration is desperate for this deal to take place.This would fulfill a campaign promise made during the 2020 race. It is under this context that they are operatiing. Especially after the debacle in the withdrawal from Afghanistan this administration badly wants a Foreign Policy victory they can hang their hats on before the Mid-Terms.
It is clear that the conflict in Ukraine is a complicating factor in this effort. The desire for a deal can be seen as a reason why the US is not taking a hawkish position to the conflict similar to what our European Allies are taking. However the proposed deal may now create a workaround for sanctions relief for Russia.
Elements of the deal which not only include allowing Iranian Oil to be traded on the International Market in an effort to lower prices in the US are chilling to see. Some of the reporting suggests that individuals who were sanctioned for the attack against the Marine Barracks in Beirut back in 1983 will be removed from the Sanctions List.
Also Moscow is demanding Sanctions relief for any future trade with Iran. This includes a provision that once lifted will prevent the United States from reimposing any future sanctions on any Iranian Financial Institution. Speaking during a visit to Iran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that he has written guarantees from the US that the current Russian Sanctions are targeting Russia over specific activities in Russia.
Another interesting proposal that is currently being negotiated is that Russia will receive Financial Compensation for storing enriched uranium from Iran. But if the United States specifically is alleged to have broken any committments then Russia will return the entire stockpile. Interesting that Europe is not mentioned to be a party that could trigger this mechanism.
Despite these efforts it could not even pass Congress right now…It is expected that the President could still push this through without the necessary oversight.
As more details of this deal emerge the more the Gulf States specifically Bahrain, The United Arab Emriates the Saudis and Egypt are growing concerned regarding how this deal empowers Iran as they should since they will be impacted by whatever happens.
It appears that another blunder is in the works…