The First 48 Hours


It has been a little more than 48 hours since Russian Forces invaded Ukraine. Often the initial reporting of events such as this is often contradictory, but there are currently some key benchmarks.

First of all we can assess that the Russian Attack is behind schedule. The successful counterattacks launched by Ukranian Forces to keep airports from being captured has pushed back efforts for a quick reenforcement and resupply of the initial wave of the attack in the North. The Amphibious Assaults from the Sea of Azov and Black Sea appear to be more successful.

Secondly the delivery of Javelins and other weapons systems by the United States and other NATO Allies has been a success. The question of how quickly these weapons can be resupplied is a major hurdle for the Ukranians. NATO appears to expaditing this process but time could be an enemy in this effort.

Third point is the Ukraine Military has been disciplined in their response. They have been able to thus far avoid large scale battles. Much has been said about their presence alongside US Forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Their fighting ability and structure appear to have been absorbed by training and fighting alongside their Western Counterparts.

We have seen some interesting moves by the West and others regarding Sanctions. Most sanctions are imposed by one side to make themselves feel good while having little or no impact on those being targeted. Although the move by Taiwan to stop sending Semiconductors to Russia will be interesting to monitor for the potential blowback from the People’s Republic.

This effort by Russia has seen some allies question their relationship. Already Hungary and the Czech Republic have proven to be more willing to side with their allies. One of the most interesting reactions has been from Kazakhstan.

On Feb 25th reports emerged that the country would not send troops to assist Russia in the campaign but would not recgonize the independence of the Donbas and Luhansk regions as well. This is a major diplomatic blow for Putin.

However the Central African Republic has gone in the opposite direction and has recgonized the independence of these oblasts. There was even a celebration in Bangui celebrating the Russians and their efforts to “stabilize” the strife ridden country.

Time will tell how events will actually determine the future events in Ukraine but the last 48 hours have been interesting.


About Author


Specialist in US Policy (Security, Assymetrical Operations and Business Development) towards Africa and Arab World (Washington DC – USA)

Leave A Reply